Looking backward: Shifting U.S. allegiances in the Middle East

This is a two-page excerpt from a book titled Muslims in Europe: Notes, Comments, Questions by Manfred Wolf, PhD. It comprises several dozen essays, written over the span of a decade. 

I found the following brief section from "Muslims in Europe" of interest because Wolf wrote it in 2015. He had had a run of accurate short-term geopolitical predictions. I was sufficiently impressed, as I read with the benefit of hindsight, to give his longer term prognostications some consideration. 

Some background about the scholar

After 40 or so years as a professor of English literature at San Francisco State University, Manfred Wolf worked part-time as a faculty member at the University of California at Berkeley, teaching Dutch language and literature. 

Wolf also wrote an autobiography of his early life, titled Survival in Paradise.. It details his and his family's journey from pre-WW2 Germany to the Netherlands. A happy childhood was soon interrupted by abrupt departure--as Nazi Germany invaded western Europe--transiting through France to Portugal, then travel by ship across the Atlantic, and finally, adolescence in the Dutch Antilles in Curacao. For many years, Wolf wrote a column in a San Francisco weekly newspaper and many other non-fiction works and literary articles. "Muslims in Europe" is self-published. Wolf is not what I would consider a professional author, although he is a very fine writer!

Be aware that Manfred Wolf was about 80 years old in 2015. He is a liberal non-observant Jew, maybe leftist in his youth, who probably voted Democrat, up and down ballot, for all his years as a naturalized American citizen. He seems to possess a greater propensity for supporting exercise of First Amendment rights than many people of that demographic.

Manfred Wolf's response to Bari Weiss's announcement of
the new University of Austen

Less background about me

Manfred Wolf is the father of my former boyfriend and fiance of many years ago, Michael Wolf. 

EDIT: The website for Manfred Wolf's autobiography, Survival in Paradise is apparently defunct. Perhaps it was due to expire as of 31 Dec 2025. 

The last paragraph of interview of Wolf about the book included Michael's insightful question about his father's trek; I had wondered the same thing for many years. It is rather serendipitous to discover the answer today! Sadly, it is all gone now, but I recall the intent of Michael's (the son's) question and his answer!

To my enduring regret, I broke my engagement with Michael.

Threat assessment of Iran

Iran is no more likely to use nuclear weapons than any other nation that has such capabilities.

Comparisons

Iran is not riddled with out-of-control corruption. Consider Nigeria. Nigeria is an oil-rich nation but operates most of its petroleum production facilities at only 40% of capacity. Nigeria must even import refined fuel for its own consumption. Iran doesn't do that.

Unlike Afghanistan, Iran has a decently educated population. What of matters such as state-imposed religion, negligible women's rights and censorship? Regardless, it is highly unlikely that the people of Iran find the prospect of war, in the Middle East or elsewhere, to be a desirable outcome. The cascade of destruction from ANY country using nuclear weapons would be disastrous, whether it were the U.S.A., France, India, Israel, Russia or others.

Policy

U.S. foreign policy has been unclear to me lately. I do not see motives of self-defense, nor of imperialism. But the "war on terror" is not going well. The U.S. cannot sustain a constant state of foreign conflict. Yet that appears to be the case, continuously since 2002, and intermittently throughout the preceding 40+ years. 

When necessary, there will be intervals of war. These must have a conclusion. The delineation between peace time and war time needs to be finite, discrete.

Peace and war and peace

I am a U.S. citizen and I love my country. I don't want us to be in wartime conflict on two or three fronts for years at a time, particularly since the "fronts" are not adjacent to our sovereign territory. Terrorist actions on U.S. soil, e.g. the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center, Pentagon, elsewhere, on September 11, 2001, must be responded to decisively. That doesn't necessarily mean going to war though. Let the CIA, or military counter-intelligence do what they are intended to do.

The first three months of 2012 have seen tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, nearby international waters, the sovereign waterways of Iran, and of neighboring countries. The same issues were a concern last year at this time, though. Barbs were exchanged in the international press. Nothing awful happened. Not last year, not this year. Iran recently held military exercises and announced production of highly enriched uranium fuel. What of that? 

Iran seems to be participating in the world community much as other countries do, and have done for centuries, with saber rattling as a show of strength.